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12/17/2013

NCAA Basketball

This week's rankings. This is through Sunday's games.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Arizona
  2. Ohio State
  3. Syracuse
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Oklahoma State
  1. Villanova
  2. Louisville
  3. Michigan State
  4. Connecticut
  5. Oregon
  1. Wichita State
  2. Duke
  3. Iowa State
  4. Memphis
  5. Kansas
  1. Massachusetts
  2. North Carolina
  3. Gonzaga
  4. Baylor
  5. Florida
  1. Kentucky
  2. Colorado
  3. UCLA
  4. Iowa
  5. Missouri

Also considered: Saint Mary's CA, Pitt, Arkansas, San Diego State, Utah, LSU, George Washington, Texas, New Mexico, Butler, Harvard, Clemson, Oklahoma, Dayton, Illinois


12/10/2013

NCAA Basketball

This week's rankings. This is through Sunday's games.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Arizona (1495)
  2. Syracuse (1422)
  3. Ohio State (1421)
  4. Louisville (1301)
  5. Wisconsin (1228)
  1. Oklahoma State (1144)
  2. Michigan State (1080)
  3. Wichita State (1039)
  4. Kansas (1011)
  5. Oregon (1002)
  1. Villanova (974)
  2. Connecticut (895)
  3. Duke (863)
  4. Baylor (646)
  5. Memphis (645)
  1. Iowa State (638)
  2. Massachusetts (614)
  3. Kentucky (595)
  4. Gonzaga (577)
  5. North Carolina (433)
  1. Florida (395)
  2. Iowa (377)
  3. UCLA (335)
  4. Colorado (262)
  5. Missouri (254)

Also considered: Pitt (202), San Diego State (164), New Mexico (156), St. Mary's CA (109), Dayton (75), Georgetown (59), Michigan (54), Arkansas (49), BYU (46), St. Louis (43), Oklahoma (27), Creighton (25), Pacific (23), Harvard (4), Clemson (1)

Biggest Movers:

  • Michigan State, -5
  • Kansas, -5
  • Syracuse, +4
  • Kentucky, -9
  • Oklahoma State, +4
  • Florida, -5
  • UCLA, -7
  • Michigan, -10
  • Baylor, +9
  • Indiana, -(a lot, from 24 to off the list)
  • Georgetown, -6
  • North Carolina, +9 (after going down 14 last week, going up 12 the week before, and dropping 15 the week before that)
  • Colorado, +(a lot, from off the list to 24)
  • Missouri, +5

Dropped out: #22 Michigan, #24 Indiana, #25 Georgetown

New: #23 UCLA, #24 Colorado, #25 Missouri


12/9/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. I'm glad this is the last time I have to say that. In the 16 years of the BCS, 9 teams ranked in the top two going into the final weekend did not end up playing for the national title. So, the odds were right at 50/50 that Auburn could sneak in, and they did. This gives the SEC another chance to keep their streak alive.

In Defense of the BCS

The BCS is not a bad idea. In fact, it's a very good idea, poorly implemented. Instead of 6 computers, it should have about 50. Maybe even 100. And about half of them should consider margin of victory. The 50 or whatever number of computers should be assigned a "ballot" like the voters get. An equal number of humans should fill out a ballot. Throw all the ballots together. Take the top two teams. You're done.

Yes, using this there will be some years where a #3 team might have a gripe about being left out. However, remember this. In the 16 years of the BCS, only one year have we had more than two undefeated teams from major conferences. Frankly that Auburn team that finished undefeated at #3 is the only team I believe that has a legitimate gripe about being left out. All of the other #3 teams have the same mark against them. They didn't win all their games. If they had, they would have finished in the top two. End of story.

Even with the expansion to four teams, there will be controversy over #4 and #5. And while you may be able to argue that the #5 team is better than the #4 team, it will be hard to argue that the #5 team is truly comparable to the #1 team. But the worse thing about having four teams is that we finally begin to see the diminishing of importance of the regular season in college football. If this was next year, the Iron Bowl would have been meaningless to Alabama. They were going to get in the playoff regardless. And by losing the Iron Bowl, they'd actually get an extra week to prepare, rest, get healthy, etc. Yes, they would drop from the #2 seed to a #4, but in a 4 team playoff on neutral sites, that doesn't really matter much. The only difference is that they'd play Florida State in the first game rather than the second. Frankly, Nick Saban would probably prefer that. He'd get a month to prepare for Florida State this way, rather than just a week. Further expansion will dilute the meaning of the regular season even more.

But that's a gripe for next year and the years to come. This year we're still using the BCS, and it apparently worked again. There's at least mostly consensus on who the top two teams are.

Well, except for me, as you'll see below...

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (3746)
  2. Alabama (3225)
  3. Stanford (3052)
  4. Auburn (2938)
  5. Baylor (2904)
  1. Missouri (2703)
  2. Michigan State (2688)
  3. Ohio State (2418)
  4. South Carolina (2304)
  5. Oregon (2241)
  1. Oklahoma State (2153)
  2. Clemson (2090)
  3. Oklahoma (1973)
  4. LSU (1870)
  5. Arizona State (1670)
  1. UCLA (1369)
  2. Louisville (1327)
  3. Wisconsin (1283)
  4. UCF (1130)
  5. Georgia (886)
  1. Fresno State (776)
  2. USC (732)
  3. Texas A&M (707)
  4. Duke (589)
  5. Eastern Illinois-FCS (582)

Also considered: North Dakota State-FCS (536), Washington (532), Notre Dame (509), Northern Illinois (493), Virginia Tech (414), Iowa (362), Texas (327), BYU (323), Michigan (322), Miami FL (290), Ole Miss (286), Minnesota (252), Oregon State (207), Washington State (96), Kansas State (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Michigan State, +4
  • Ohio State, -6
  • Oklahoma State, -6
  • Arizona State, -6
  • Fresno State, +5
  • Eastern Illinois-FCS, +4
  • Northern Illinois, -13
  • Texas, -7

Dropped out: #16 Northern Illinois, #25 Texas

New: #21 Fresno State, #25 Eastern Illinois-FCS


12/2/2013

NCAA Basketball

This week's rankings. This is through Sunday's games.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Ohio State (1448)
  2. Michigan State (1427)
  3. Arizona (1399)
  4. Kansas (1332)
  5. Louisville (1244)
  1. Syracuse (1214)
  2. Wisconsin (1034)
  3. Wichita State (980)
  4. Kentucky (971)
  5. Oklahoma State (913)
  1. Oregon (863)
  2. Villanova (852)
  3. Duke (844)
  4. Connecticut (802)
  5. Florida (696)
  1. UCLA (626)
  2. Memphis (607)
  3. Gonzaga (599)
  4. Iowa State (597)
  5. Massachusetts (363)
  1. Iowa (336)
  2. Michigan (299)
  3. Baylor (268)
  4. Indiana (225)
  5. Georgetown (221)

Also considered: St. Mary's CA (202), Pitt (198), Dayton (188), North Carolina (172), Missouri (110), Ole Miss (94), St. Louis (83), San Diego State (64), Creighton (54), VCU (50), Oklahoma (47), New Mexico (44), BYU (42), Illinois (30), Cincinnati (1)

Biggest Movers:

  • Kansas, -4
  • Oklahoma State, -7
  • Duke, -6
  • Gonzaga, -10
  • Wisconsin, +4
  • Wichita State, +6
  • North Carolina, -14 (after going up 12 last week and dropping 15 the week before)
  • Oregon, +5
  • Baylor, -4
  • St. Louis, -12
  • Creighton, -12
  • UCLA, +8
  • Iowa, +7
  • Massachusetts, +7
  • Villanova, +17

Dropped out: #15 North Carolina, #21 St. Louis, #22 Creighton, #25 Saint Mary's CA

New: #12 Villanova, #20 Massachusetts, #21 Iowa, #25 Georgetown


12/2/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. I've been saying it since the very first release. Win out and everything else will take care of itself. If Florida State and Ohio State win their conference championship games, they will play for the title in Pasadena on January 6.

If.

Over the course of the SEC's seven year run, they've had a lot of luck in the final weeks. The Pac-12 and Big 12 in particular have handed the SEC a few gifts by beating their frontrunners late. It will take another gift like that from the Big Ten to keep the possibility of the streak alive. This is not altogether unlikely, and if you believe that there's some hand of destiny controlling the SEC's fate, then you have to like Michigan State's chances vs. Ohio State. Certainly, everyone in the SEC is now a Sparty fan.

The SEC champion will finish at worst #3 in the BCS in the final release. So they will be there waiting for a stumble from FSU or OSU. In the extremely unlikely event that both stumble, Alabama can still find their way back into the title game, perhaps as a rematch against Auburn. Oklahoma State isn't altogether out of the running as well, and could jump idle Alabama with an impressive performance against the Sooners this week. I wouldn't bet the farm on that though.

No other team has any kind of shot of making the title game. In order of likelihood, it's probably this: Florida State, Ohio State, Missouri, Auburn, Alabama, Oklahoma State. Two of those teams will play for the title.

The BCS Busters chances took a hit with the loss by Fresno State. Fortunately, Northern Illinois held on to their #14 spot. They won't fall out of the top 16 unless they lose. That's the good news. The bad news is that they face an improving Bowling Green in the MAC title game and a loss isn't out of the question.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (3385)
  2. Ohio State (2938)
  3. Alabama (2873)
  4. Missouri (2857)
  5. Oklahoma State (2553)
  1. Stanford (2480)
  2. Auburn (2471)
  3. Baylor (2427)
  4. Arizona State (2387)
  5. South Carolina (2297)
  1. Michigan State (2219)
  2. Oregon (1958)
  3. Clemson (1848)
  4. LSU (1652)
  5. Oklahoma (1301)
  1. Northern Illinois (1248)
  2. UCLA (1164)
  3. Louisville (1070)
  4. Wisconsin (1030)
  5. UCF (954)
  1. Duke (689)
  2. Georgia (651)
  3. USC (583)
  4. Texas A&M (467)
  5. Texas (447)

Also considered: Fresno State (422), Washington (415), North Dakota State-FCS (366), Eastern Illinois-FCS (326), Virginia Tech (324), Iowa (284), Michigan (241), BYU (231), Miami FL (191), Ole Miss (175), Minnesota (146), Arizona (137), Oregon State (89), Washington State (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Clemson, -8
  • UCLA, +5
  • Wisconsin, -4
  • Duke, +4
  • Texas, +9

Dropped out: #17 Fresno State

New: #25 Texas


11/25/2013

NCAA Basketball

This week's rankings. This is through Sunday's games.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Kansas (1529)
  2. Michigan State (1440)
  3. Oklahoma State (1314)
  4. Ohio State (1259)
  5. Louisville (1141)
  1. Arizona (1070)
  2. Duke (1063)
  3. Gonzaga (1025)
  4. Syracuse (962)
  5. Kentucky (900)
  1. Wisconsin (884)
  2. Connecticut (699)
  3. Florida (670)
  4. Wichita State (631)
  5. North Carolina (622)
  1. Oregon (575)
  2. Iowa State (463)
  3. Memphis (330)
  4. Baylor (314)
  5. Michigan (300)
  1. Saint Louis (287)
  2. Creighton (277)
  3. Indiana (263)
  4. UCLA (256)
  5. Saint Mary's CA (234)

Also considered: Georgetown (213), Massachusetts (212), Iowa (198), Villanova (110), Pittsburgh (104), VCU (97), California (72), Miami FL (70), Missouri (57), Illinois (50), Marquette (41), Oklahoma (26), Colorado (23), Minnesota (18), Providence (1)

Biggest Movers:

  • Louisville, -4
  • Oklahoma State, +7
  • Connecticut, +5
  • Wichita State, +4
  • North Carolina, +12 (after dropping 15 last week)
  • Iowa State, +5
  • Memphis, -6
  • Baylor, +4
  • Michigan, -6
  • Saint Louis, +4
  • Creighton, +4
  • Indiana, -4
  • Saint Mary's, -4
  • New Mexico, -(a lot, dropping from 20 to off the list)
  • VCU, -20

Dropped out: #11 VCU, #20 New Mexico

New: #15 North Carolina, #22 Creighton


11/25/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. Alabama and Florida State clearly control their own destiny at this point.

Ohio State is now a solid #3 in the polls and in the computers. That is their floor if they win out. There are no realistic scenarios where a one loss team from any conference can pass an unbeaten Ohio State.

The BCS Busters are still looking good, but perhaps a bit tenuous. NIU leapfrogged #16 Fresno State, who dropped a spot, with their win over Toledo to jump to #14. However, #15 Wisconsin is breathing down their neck and likely passes them with a strong win against Penn State. NIU may be able to climb back up a bit with a MAC Championship Game win, however. As predicted, Arizona State has passed them both. However, both remain in the top 16. A reminder on the rules for the BCS Busters. One team is guaranteed a BCS Bowl if they finish in the top 12, or the top 16 and in front of at least one BCS AQ conference champ. Neither will finish in the top 12 unless there are some upsets in the final weeks. The lowest rated BCS AQ champ is UCF at #19. The Knights will not pass Northern Illinois or Fresno State if those teams win out. However, there's still a problem for the Huskies and Bulldogs. Oklahoma sits at #18 and will jump several spots if they beat Oklahoma State in the Bedlam game. LSU sits at #17 and closes at Arkansas. A big win there might boost LSU up a bit, but it's unlikely. The Razorbacks are at the bottom of the SEC. I think even with an Oklahoma Bedlam win, a BCS Buster finishes in the top 16, but there are no guarantees here.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (3114)
  2. Alabama (3013)
  3. Ohio State (2690)
  4. Missouri (2563)
  5. Oklahoma State (2348)
  1. Clemson (2289)
  2. Baylor (2277)
  3. Auburn (2103)
  4. Stanford (2090)
  5. Arizona State (1931)
  1. Oregon (1923)
  2. South Carolina (1892)
  3. Michigan State (1878)
  4. LSU (1507)
  5. Wisconsin (1428)
  1. Oklahoma (1063)
  2. Fresno State (950)
  3. Northern Illinois (923)
  4. Louisville (878)
  5. UCF (831)
  1. USC (806)
  2. UCLA (745)
  3. Texas A&M (694)
  4. Georgia (383)
  5. Duke (365)

Also considered: North Dakota State-FCS (310), Notre Dame (276), Virginia Tech (255), Eastern Illinois-FCS (246), Ole Miss (244), Washington (236), Arizona (149), BYU (142), Texas (99), Michigan (78), Washington State (15), East Carolina (9), Iowa (9), Minnesota (4), Miami FL (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Oklahoma State, +5
  • Baylor, -4
  • Arizona State, +5
  • Oregon, -7
  • LSU, +4
  • Oklahoma, +5
  • UCLA, -8
  • Texas A&M, -12
  • Duke, +4
  • Ole Miss, -5

Dropped out: #25 Ole Miss

New: #25 Duke


11/19/2013

NCAA Football

A random thought about this season. They always say that there is very little leapfrogging in the AP Poll. Win and you at least hold your position. Sometimes this isn't true in the first few weeks, but after that things settle down.

Ohio State entered the season ranked #2 in the AP.

Florida State was #11. Baylor was unranked. They are now both above the Buckeyes in the AP poll and will likely remain there should everyone win out.

Sometimes winning isn't enough.


11/19/2013

NCAA Basketball

This week's rankings. This is through Sunday's games.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Louisville (1592)
  2. Michigan State (1548)
  3. Kansas (1542)
  4. Ohio State (1347)
  5. Duke (1193)
  1. Arizona (1121)
  2. Kentucky (1093)
  3. Syracuse (1090)
  4. Gonzaga (1059)
  5. Oklahoma State (1004)
  1. VCU (934)
  2. Memphis (882)
  3. Wisconsin (852)
  4. Michigan (811)
  5. Florida (765)
  1. Oregon (637)
  2. Connecticut (620)
  3. Wichita State (618)
  4. Indiana (527)
  5. New Mexico (403)
  1. Saint Mary's CA (370)
  2. Iowa State (364)
  3. Baylor (324)
  4. UCLA (318)
  5. Saint Louis (306)

Also considered: Creighton (292), North Carolina (262), Marquette (256), Georgetown (255), Miami FL (254), Pittsburgh (237), BYU (191), Iowa (185), Minnesota (135), Oklahoma (130), Missouri (122), Villanova (119), Butler (107), Mississippi (94), Illinois (90), Kansas State (84), California (53), Cincinnati (53), Virginia (41), Massachusetts (1)

Biggest Movers:

  • Ohio State, +4
  • Kentucky, -4
  • Gonzaga, +5
  • VCU, +4
  • Wisconsin, +4
  • Michigan, -6
  • Florida, -8
  • Saint Mary's CA, +8
  • Iowa State, +15
  • Baylor, +4
  • North Carolina, -15
  • Marquette, -12
  • Notre Dame, -(a lot, from #24 to off the list

Dropped out: #12 North Carolina, #23 Creighton, #24 Notre Dame

New: #22 Saint Mary's CA, #23 Iowa State, #24 Baylor

Down to 45 teams under consideration this week. Next week will likely drop to 40.


11/18/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. Alabama and Florida State clearly control their own destiny at this point.

The Baylor Bears gained quite a bit on Ohio State this week, but are still sitting at #4. If they beat Oklahoma State this week, they should take over the number 3 spot. Assuming both win out, Ohio State could still pass them again as long as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State keep winning. It will be close.

It's time for my weekly repetition of the obvious. The good news for both the Bears and the Buckeyes is this: in the BCS era, only one time have we had more than 2 unbeatens from major conferences at the end of the season. That is the only year where an unbeaten team from a major conference did not play for the Glass Football at the end of the season. Conclusion: if you're unbeaten and in a major conference, the odds of you playing for the national title are pretty good. Baylor and Ohio State just need to win out. The rest will take care of itself.

The BCS Busters are still looking good, but not as good as a week ago. They each dropped a slot and now sit at #15 and #16, with Fresno State on top. That's high enough though, as long as they stay ahead of the AAC champ, which is currently UCF at #18, who also dropped a spot. One possible problem for the BCS Busters are the slow climbs of #17 Arizona State and #19 Wisconsin. If those two teams pass the BCS Busters, then they'll drop to #17 or lower and won't qualify. Arizona State will climb a bit more if they beat UCLA this weekend, likely passing Northern Illinois, and possibly Fresno State as well. They also have a potential Pac-12 title game. If they win that, the Sun Devils will definitely leap up the rankings. It's unclear how much a loss in the title game would hurt them. It would likely depend upon the nature of the loss. Wisconsin doesn't have any good games left from the computers perspective, travelling to Minnesota and hosting Penn State, but dominating performances can move them up in the polls. If the Harris voters start liking what they're seeing out of Madison, this could spell trouble for Bulldogs and Huskies. The other thing to remember from the computers perspective is that these two teams played each other earlier in the year. As long as they both keep winning, their wins help each other.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (3149)
  2. Alabama (2950)
  3. Baylor (2733)
  4. Oregon (2540)
  5. Ohio State (2497)
  1. Missouri (2274)
  2. Clemson (2251)
  3. Stanford (2035)
  4. Auburn (1931)
  5. Oklahoma State (1809)
  1. Texas A&M (1742)
  2. South Carolina (1704)
  3. Michigan State (1516)
  4. UCLA (1252)
  5. Arizona State (1189)
  1. Wisconsin (1145)
  2. LSU (942)
  3. Fresno State (861)
  4. Louisville (859)
  5. Northern Illinois (846)
  1. Oklahoma (838)
  2. UCF (685)
  3. USC (649)
  4. Georgia (412)
  5. Ole Miss (387)

Also considered: North Dakota State-FCS (322), BYU (285), Virginia Tech (266), Duke (264), Kansas State (262), Eastern Illinois-FCS (210), Minnesota (165), Oregon State (102), Georgia Tech (85), Texas (82), Miami FL (43), Washington (40), Michigan (39), Notre Dame (35), Washington State (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Stanford, -4
  • USC, +6
  • BYU, -4

Dropped out: #23 Brigham Young, #25 Virginia Tech

New: #23 USC, #25 Ole Miss


11/12/2013

NCAA Basketball

This week's rankings. Not many changes from the preseason.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Louisville (1383)
  2. Michigan State (1325)
  3. Kentucky (1263)
  4. Duke (1263)
  5. Kansas (1202)
  1. Arizona (1068)
  2. Florida (1016)
  3. Michigan (1006)
  4. Ohio State (992)
  5. Syracuse (939)
  1. Oklahoma State (885)
  2. North Carolina (810)
  3. Memphis (704)
  4. Gonzaga (690)
  5. VCU (664)
  1. Marquette (498)
  2. Wisconsin (458)
  3. Wichita State (447)
  4. Oregon (407)
  5. Connecticut (377)
  1. New Mexico (326)
  2. Indiana (279)
  3. Creighton (261
  4. Notre Dame (255)
  5. UCLA (238)

Also considered: Virginia (211), Baylor (206), Saint Louis (200), Saint Mary's CA (187), Georgetown (174), Iowa (173), Miami FL (147), Pittsburgh (139), Kansas State (124), Ole Miss (113), Butler (112), Iowa State (104), Tennessee (102), North Carolina State (86), Missouri (86), Minnesota (76), Middle Tennessee (70), Illinois (54), Villanova (44), UNLV (44), Massachusetts (43), San Diego State (40), Cincinnati (38), Colorado (34), Stanford (1)


11/11/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. Alabama and Florida State clearly control their own destiny at this point.

Ohio State and Baylor got one of the dominoes they needed to fall, when Stanford knocked off Oregon on Thursday. Ohio State is 3rd, and looks to be in the driver's seat should one of the top two stumble, but their position is tenuous. Michigan losing this weekend hurt them moving forward. They really needed the game against the Wolverines to mean something and now it clearly will not. Nebraska can continue to be a thorn in the Buckeyes side by upsetting Michigan State this week. Michigan State is quietly moving up in the rankings and could give the Buckeyes a nice top 15 opponent for the Conference Championship if they win out. But a loss to the Cornhuskers will likely put Nebraska in Indianapolis to face the Buckeyes instead of the Spartans, and that won't be nearly the résumé booster as Michigan State.

Stanford is currently ahead of Baylor but has no realistic shot of making the title game. If two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State were to fall, no way does a 1-loss Stanford (who loss to Utah) get into the title game ahead of an undefeated Big 12 champ. Same for a one loss SEC champ such as Auburn or Missouri (who would likely also finish ahead of Stanford if it came to that). It's just not going to happen.

And the Bears may not even need two of those three teams to lose. They could jump the Buckeyes with impressive performances. And they could also get help if the Big 12 plays nice and sets up right for them, and the Big Ten eats its own. The strength of competition in the final weeks is going to be important for the Buckeyes and the Bears.

It's time for my weekly repetition of the obvious. The good news for both the Bears and the Buckeyes is this: in the BCS era, only one time have we had more than 2 unbeatens from major conferences at the end of the season. That is the only year where an unbeaten team from a major conference did not play for the Glass Football at the end of the season. Conclusion: if you're unbeaten and in a major conference, the odds of you playing for the national title are pretty good. Florida State, Ohio State, and Baylor just need to win out. The rest will take care of itself.

The BCS Busters are looking great. Both Fresno State and Northern Illinois have made the top 16, at #14 and #15 respectively. UCF beating Houston this weekend really helped them as it likely removes Louisville from a chance at the AAC title. UCF did move up the BCS charts and are up to #17. But UCF currently trails both BCS Busters in both the polls and the computers. They won't gain in the computers and likely will even slip farther behind Northern Illinois, so it's really up to the humans. It seems doubtful that the humans will jump UCF over them at this point with nothing significant remaining on the schedule. So, unless the Huskies and the Bulldogs both lose, it looks like we'll have a BCS Busting team this year.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (2939)
  2. Alabama (2794)
  3. Baylor (2577)
  4. Stanford (2455)
  5. Ohio State (2393)
  1. Oregon (2321)
  2. Missouri (2108)
  3. Clemson (1989)
  4. Auburn (1689)
  5. Texas A&M (1587)
  1. South Carolina (1578)
  2. Oklahoma State (1522)
  3. UCLA (1294)
  4. Michigan State (1258)
  5. LSU (1054)
  1. Arizona State (954)
  2. Wisconsin (948)
  3. Louisville (891)
  4. Fresno State (854)
  5. Oklahoma (761)
  1. UCF (738)
  2. Northern Illinois (696)
  3. Brigham Young (470)
  4. Georgia (461)
  5. Virginia Tech (451)

Also considered: Texas (423), Miami FL (382), Ole Miss (321), USC (320), Kansas State (249), Georgia Tech (142), Minnesota (134), North Dakota State-FCS (131), Oregon State (114), Washington (109), Ball State (106), Houston (68), Eastern Illinois-FCS (36), Arizona (32), Duke (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Oregon, -4
  • UCLA, +4
  • Wisconsin, +4
  • Oklahoma, -11
  • UCF, +4
  • Virginia Tech, +7
  • Miami FL, -12

Dropped out: #15 Miami FL

New: #25 Virginia Tech


11/6/2013

NCAA Basketball

It's time for me to throw out some preseason rankings. I've kept quiet long enough. As I've said previously, I do a little scribble on the napkin type of stuff to come up with my rankings. And, the preseason ones are based quite a bit upon where teams finished last year. That's true for most people, but I actually admit it. I had 60 teams that I put under relatively serious consideration for my top 25. Within the next week or two, I'll prune that down to 40, where it will stay for the rest of the season.

So, without further ado...

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Louisville (1407)
  2. Michigan State (1356)
  3. Duke (1308)
  4. Kentucky (1221)
  5. Kansas (1211)
  1. Arizona (1124)
  2. Florida (1071)
  3. Michigan (1060)
  4. Ohio State (1021)
  5. Syracuse (994)
  1. Oklahoma State (927)
  2. North Carolina (885)
  3. Memphis (696)
  4. Gonzaga (635)
  5. VCU (603)
  1. Marquette (531)
  2. Wichita State (499)
  3. Wisconsin (445)
  4. Connecticut (403)
  5. New Mexico (388)
  1. Oregon (386)
  2. Indiana (370)
  3. Creighton (317)
  4. Notre Dame (308)
  5. UCLA (307)

Also considered: Virginia (282), Georgetown (237), Iowa (228), Baylor (220), Miami FL (216), Colorado (201), Saint Louis (199), Pittsburgh (176), Tennessee (162), Kansas State (160), Minnesota (183), Butler (135), Colorado State (135), Illinois (133), North Carolina State (132), Saint Mary's (131), UNLV (131), Iowa State (131), Ole Miss (121), Missouri (121), Temple (109), Cincinnati (106), La Salle (104), California (103), Boise State (86), Villanova (82), Arizona State (78), Stanford (73), Alabama (63), Washington (52), Harvard (42), St. John's (37), LSU (35), Boston College (12), Georgia (1)


11/5/2013

NCAA Football

AAC Tiebreaker

Here it is, direct from the AAC site

Three-Way Tie

  1. If one team defeated both other teams, then that team shall be the representative.
  2. If still tied, and if two teams defeated the third team, the third team is eliminated. The remaining two teams revert to the two-team tie procedure.
  3. If still tied, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings will be the BCS representative.

Houston plays UCF this week and Louisville the next. If the Cougars knock off the Knights and lose to the Cardinals, that sets up the potential for a three-way tie. The tiebreaker would be #3, the highest BCS rated team, which looks to be Louisville. This would be bad for the BCS Busters. I'm still not sure Louisville can overtake them, but it will be close. Note that Cincinnati and SMU also only have one loss in the conference, but both play two of UCF, Houston, and Louisville down the stretch, and I'm assuming those teams win out except for the aforementioned games, so they would not enter this tiebreaker scenario. There are other tiebreaker scenarios where they can be a factor, but all of those are likely to benefit the "BCS Busters", and aren't worth discussing.


11/5/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. I didn't think that Florida State would pass Oregon with a win, but as soon as the first poll was released yesterday, it was obvious that they would. The Seminoles drastically reduced the poll gap between them and Oregon, and they're almost a unanimous #1 in the computers. That will change this week should Oregon beat Stanford.

Stop me if you've heard this before. The Buckeyes still need help. The winner of Stanford/Oregon will still be ahead of the Buckeyes in the computers. Auburn losing would help the Buckeyes a little bit. But, realistically, they need two of the three teams above them to lose. Michigan State and Wisconsin continuing to win is also helping the Buckeyes, but it won't be enough. The computers are never going to be all that friendly to Ohio State. They're a solid #4 and will likely remain so. It's even conceivable they could slip to #5 in the computers, particularly if Wisconsin and Michigan State stumble. So they're going to have to make that ground up in the polls. That means they need to be one of only two undefeated teams at the end of the year. Probably. The would likely be ahead of an undefeated Baylor, but that's not absolutely certain.

That's the bad news for Ohio State. Baylor is pretty much in the same boat. The good news for both, and even Florida State, is this: in the BCS era, only one time have we had more than 2 unbeatens from major conferences at the end of the season. That is the only year where an unbeaten team from a major conference did not play for the Glass Football at the end of the season. Conclusion: if you're unbeaten and in a major conference, the odds of you playing for the national title are pretty good. Florida State, Ohio State, and Baylor just need to win out. The rest will take care of itself.

I keep saying that, but it is starting to look less certain. We are down to 5 unbeatens from the major conferences. That isn't historically high, but it is at the top end. Combine that with the fact that none of these unbeatens will play each other before the bowls, and there is certainly some possibility of chaos in this final year for the BCS.

The BCS Busters are looking pretty good. One needs to make it into the top 12, or into the top 16, and be ahead of one of the Big 5 champs and the AAC champ. Fresno State and Northern Illinois currently sit at #16 and #18, and Louisville and UCF are the highest rated teams in the AAC at #20 and #21, respectively. Louisville bests them in both human polls, but trails in the computers. They'll gain some over the last few weeks, but it doesn't look like it will be enough unless they pick up some ground in the polls as well. The Cardinals also need UCF to lose. Probably twice. The Knights currently hold the lead in the AAC and would win the tiebreaker since they've defeated Louisville head-to-head. There's a possibility of a three way tie between Houston, Louisville, and UCF. I'm not sure what the tiebreaker is. I'll have to look it up. It's also possible that UCF could climb up, but they need help from the humans. Their computer numbers are pretty good, and should stay there. This will bear watching, probably right down to the final BCS release.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (2800)
  2. Oregon (2605)
  3. Alabama (2565)
  4. Baylor (2276)
  5. Ohio State (2192)
  1. Stanford (2135)
  2. Clemson (1912)
  3. Missouri (1903)
  4. Auburn (1451)
  5. Oklahoma (1398)
  1. South Carolina (1368)
  2. Texas A&M (1354)
  3. Oklahoma State (1293)
  4. LSU (1273)
  5. Miami FL (1178)
  1. Michigan State (1023)
  2. UCLA (937)
  3. Arizona State (925)
  4. Louisville (921)
  5. Fresno State (631)
  1. Wisconsin (579)
  2. Northern Illinois (569)
  3. Georgia (543)
  4. Brigham Young (506)
  5. Central Florida (471)

Also considered: USC (254), Notre Dame (243), Houston (233), Florida (201), Texas (182), Ole Miss (181), Virginia Tech (173), Texas Tech (164), Washington (157), Michigan (51), Georgia Tech (46), North Dakota State-FCS (41), Arizona (39), Oregon State (37), Eastern Illinois-FCS (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Miami FL, -6
  • Michigan State, +5
  • Arizona State, +6
  • Wisconsin, +8
  • Texas Tech, -15
  • Michigan, -10

Dropped out: #18 Texas Tech, #25 Michigan

New: #21 Wisconsin, #23 Georgia


11/1/2013


NCAA Basketball

Oops. I had the season starting on November 5. Those were exhibition games. The season actually starts on November 8. You likely knew that already.


10/28/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. Missouri's loss hurt Florida State, and they now hold the #3 spot. It's possible that they might reclaim the #2 spot with a dominating performance against Miami this week, since Oregon is idle. But I doubt it.

The Buckeyes still need help. Missouri losing moves them to #4 in the computers. The winner of Stanford/Oregon will still be ahead of the Buckeyes in the computers, however. Auburn losing would help the Buckeyes a little bit, as would Virginia Tech losing. But, realistically, they need two of the three teams above them to lose. The computers are never going to be all that friendly to Ohio State, so they're going to have to make that ground up in the polls. That means they need to be one of only two undefeated teams at the end of the year. Probably. The would likely be ahead of an undefeated Baylor, as well as an undefeated Miami FL. Although the latter is by no means certain, since Miami would have beaten Florida State. Probably twice.

That's the bad news for Ohio State. Baylor and Miami are pretty much in the same boat. The good news for all three, and even Florida State, is this: in the BCS era, only one time have we had more than 2 unbeatens from major conferences at the end of the season. That is the only year where an unbeaten team from a major conference did not play for the Glass Football at the end of the season. Conclusion: if you're unbeaten and in a major conference, the odds of you playing for the national title are pretty good. Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Miami just need to win out. The rest will take care of itself.

The BCS Busters are looking pretty good. One needs to make it into the top 12, or into the top 16, and be ahead of one of the Big 5 champs and the AAC champ. Fresno State and Northern Illinois currently sit at #16 and #17, and Louisville and UCF are the highest rated teams in the AAC at #19 and #23, respectively. Louisville bests them in both human polls, but trails in the computers. They'll gain some over the last few weeks, but it doesn't look like it will be enough unless they pick up some ground in the polls as well. This will bear watching, probably right down to the final BCS release.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (2636)
  2. Oregon (2572)
  3. Alabama (2548)
  4. Baylor (2206)
  5. Stanford (2070)
  1. Ohio State (2042)
  2. Clemson (1764)
  3. Missouri (1731)
  4. Miami FL (1616)
  5. Texas A&M (1408)
  1. Oklahoma (1387)
  2. Auburn (1335)
  3. LSU (1279)
  4. South Carolina (1067)
  5. Oklahoma State (1009)
  1. Louisville (926)
  2. UCLA (850)
  3. Texas Tech (837)
  4. Fresno State (648)
  5. Northern Illinois (575)
  1. Michigan State (552)
  2. Central Florida (491)
  3. Brigham Young (486)
  4. Arizona State (478)
  5. Michigan (456)

Also considered: Georgia (441), Virginia Tech (382), Florida (347), Wisconsin (327), Houston (322), Ole Miss (255), Oregon State (253), Notre Dame (234), Texas (229), Washington (100), USC (98), Eastern Illinois (66), Arizona (52), Georgia Tech (41), Ball State (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Missouri, -4
  • Oklahoma, +6
  • South Carolina, +6
  • Texas Tech, -8
  • Michigan State, +11
  • Brigham Youung, +8
  • Georgia, -4
  • Wisconsin, -4

Dropped out: #22 Georgia, #25 Wisconsin

New: #21 Michigan State, #25 Michigan


10/21/2013

NCAA Football

BCS Ratings for this week are up. As I predicted last week (unlike all of the other BCS prognosticators), Florida State snatches the #2 spot away from Oregon with their win against Clemson. They will have to continue to have dominating performances to hold that spot, however, as they trail in both polls, and Oregon's computer ranking will improve. Florida State needs Missouri to keep winning as they are ahead of Oregon in 5 of the 6 computers. The Seminoles need that gap. Right now I do not think that Florida State can maintain their #2 slot without a loss from Oregon or Alabama, but I'm not sure exactly when Oregon will overtake them.

The Buckeyes need help. They are #5 in the computers. Missouri losing would help them, as they'd likely climb to #4. But the winner of Stanford/Oregon will still be ahead of the Buckeyes in the computers. Auburn losing would help the Buckeyes a little bit, as would Virginia Tech losing. But, realistically, they need two of the three teams above them to lose. The computers are never going to be all that friendly to Ohio State, so they're going to have to make that ground up in the polls. That means they need to be one of only two undefeated teams at the end of the year. Probably. The would likely be ahead of an undefeated Baylor, as well as an undefeated Miami FL. Although the latter is by no means certain, since Miami would have beaten Florida State. Probably twice.

That's the bad news for Ohio State. Baylor and Miami are pretty much in the same boat. The good news is this: in the BCS era, only one time have we had more than 2 unbeatens from major conferences at the end of the season. That is the only year where an unbeaten team from a major conference did not play for the Glass Football at the end of the season. Conclusion: if you're unbeaten and in a major conference, the odds of you playing for the national title are pretty good. Ohio State, Baylor, and Miami just need to win out. The rest will take care of itself.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Florida State (2532)
  2. Alabama (2336)
  3. Oregon (2334)
  4. Missouri (2089)
  5. Baylor (1979)
  1. Ohio State (1842)
  2. Stanford (1800)
  3. Miami FL (1544)
  4. Clemson (1530)
  5. Texas Tech (1423)
  1. LSU (1292)
  2. Auburn (1107)
  3. Texas A&M (1097)
  4. UCLA (1047)
  5. Virginia Tech (914)
  1. Louisville (781)
  2. Oklahoma (796)
  3. Oklahoma State (733)
  4. Fresno State (629)
  5. South Carolina (608)
  1. Central Florida (502)
  2. Georgia (415)
  3. Northern Illinois (402)
  4. Arizona State (380)
  5. Wisconsin (361)

Also considered: Michigan (334), Oregon State (332), Florida (311), Nebraska (268), Ole Miss (261), Brigham Young (245), Michigan State (208), Notre Dame (162), Washington (72), Utah (64), Pitt (53), USC (47), Houston (12), Arizona (2), North Dakota State (1)

Biggest movers:

  • Clemson, -5
  • LSU, -5
  • Texas A&M, -6
  • Louisville, -7
  • UCLA, -4
  • Missouri, +7
  • Stanford, +5
  • South Carolina, -7
  • Miami FL, +5
  • Georgia, -7
  • Texas Tech, +6
  • Florida, -9
  • Washington, -13
  • Auburn, +11
  • Nebraska, -5
  • UCF, +12
  • Arizona State, +8

Dropped out: #19 Florida, #21 Washington, #24 Nebraska

New: #22 UCF, #24 Arizona State, #25 Wisconsin